by CalculatedRisk on 6/30/2011 09:58:00 AM
Notes: Case-Shiller is the most followed house price index, but CoreLogic is used by the Federal Reserve and is followed by many analysts. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average of March, April and May (May weighted the most) and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).
From CoreLogic: CoreLogic® Home Price Index Shows Second Consecutive Month-Over-Month Increase
CoreLogic … today released its May Home Price Index (HPI) which shows that home prices in the U.S. increased on a month-over-month basis. According to the CoreLogic HPI, national home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 0.8 percent in May 2011 compared to April 2011, the second consecutive month-over-month increase. On a year-over-year basis, home prices declined by 7.4 percent in May 2011 compared to May 2010 after declining by 6.7 percent in April 2011 compared to April 2010. Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 0.4 percent in May 2011 compared to May 2010 and by 0.8 percent in April 2011 compared to April 2010. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.
“Two consecutive months of month-over-month growth and continued relative strength in the non-distressed market segment are positive seasonal signs in the housing market. Slowly declining shadow inventory and stabilized negative equity levels are also positive signs. Nonetheless, the fragile economic recovery is still critical to the long-term recovery in the housing market,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.
Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.
This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI datasince 1976. January 2000 = 100.
The index was up 0.8% in May, and is down 7.4% over the last year, and off 32.7% from the peak.
This is the tenth straight month of year-over-year declines, and the index is still 2.4% below the March 2009 low (the previous post-bubble low).
Some of this increase is seasonal (the CoreLogic index is NSA) and the index is still off 7.4% from last May (the largest year-over-year decline since Sept 2009)