Case Shiller House Price Forecasts: New Post-bubble lows Seasonally Adjusted

Case Shiller House Price Forecasts: New Post-bubble lows Seasonally Adjusted

by CalculatedRisk on 1/26/2012  

The Case Shiller house price indexes for November will be released next Tuesday. Here are a couple of forecasts:

• Zillow Forecast: November Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 3.2% Decline from One Year Ago

Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted, NSA) will decline by 3.2 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will show a year-over-year decline of 2.7 percent. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from October to November will be -0.2 percent and -0.1 percent for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA), respectively.

• From RadarLogic: Home Prices Declined at an Accelerating Rate in November as Sales Increased

The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for November 2011 will decline again on a month-over-month basis.

This month, we expect the November 2011 10-City composite index to be about 152 and the 20-City index to be roughly 138.

Below is a summary table. Case-Shiller will probably report house prices are at a new post-bubble low seasonally adjusted, but still above the NSA (Not Seasonally Adjusted) levels of March 2011.

Case Shiller Composite 10 Case Shiller Composite 20
NSA SA NSA SA
Case Shiller (actual) Nov-10 157.5 156.44 143.77 142.77
Oct-11 154.1 152.24 140.3 138.56
Zillow Forecast YoY -2.7% -2.7% -3.2% -3.2%
MoM -0.6% -0.1% -0.8% -0.2%
Zillow Forecasts1 153.2 152.2 139.2 138.2
RadarLogic Forecast 152 138
Post Bubble Lows2 150.44 152.24 137.64 138.56
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts
2NSA lows were in March 2011, SA lows were last month.

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