by CalculatedRisk on 1/26/2012
The Case Shiller house price indexes for November will be released next Tuesday. Here are a couple of forecasts:
Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted, NSA) will decline by 3.2 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will show a year-over-year decline of 2.7 percent. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from October to November will be -0.2 percent and -0.1 percent for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA), respectively.
• From RadarLogic: Home Prices Declined at an Accelerating Rate in November as Sales Increased
The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for November 2011 will decline again on a month-over-month basis.
This month, we expect the November 2011 10-City composite index to be about 152 and the 20-City index to be roughly 138.
Below is a summary table. Case-Shiller will probably report house prices are at a new post-bubble low seasonally adjusted, but still above the NSA (Not Seasonally Adjusted) levels of March 2011.
|Case Shiller Composite 10||Case Shiller Composite 20|
|Case Shiller (actual)||Nov-10||157.5||156.44||143.77||142.77|
|Post Bubble Lows2||150.44||152.24||137.64||138.56|
|1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts
2NSA lows were in March 2011, SA lows were last month.