Case Shiller House Price Forecasts: New Post-bubble lows Seasonally Adjusted

Case Shiller House Price Forecasts: New Post-bubble lows Seasonally Adjusted

by CalculatedRisk on 1/26/2012  

The Case Shiller house price indexes for November will be released next Tuesday. Here are a couple of forecasts:

• Zillow Forecast: November Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 3.2% Decline from One Year Ago

Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted, NSA) will decline by 3.2 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will show a year-over-year decline of 2.7 percent. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from October to November will be -0.2 percent and -0.1 percent for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA), respectively.

• From RadarLogic: Home Prices Declined at an Accelerating Rate in November as Sales Increased

The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for November 2011 will decline again on a month-over-month basis.

This month, we expect the November 2011 10-City composite index to be about 152 and the 20-City index to be roughly 138.

Below is a summary table. Case-Shiller will probably report house prices are at a new post-bubble low seasonally adjusted, but still above the NSA (Not Seasonally Adjusted) levels of March 2011.

Case Shiller Composite 10 Case Shiller Composite 20
Case Shiller (actual) Nov-10 157.5 156.44 143.77 142.77
Oct-11 154.1 152.24 140.3 138.56
Zillow Forecast YoY -2.7% -2.7% -3.2% -3.2%
MoM -0.6% -0.1% -0.8% -0.2%
Zillow Forecasts1 153.2 152.2 139.2 138.2
RadarLogic Forecast 152 138
Post Bubble Lows2 150.44 152.24 137.64 138.56
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts
2NSA lows were in March 2011, SA lows were last month.

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