One of David Rosenberg’s latest notes touched on 9 economic myths. If you’re familiar with his stance you probably know what his position is on each. So, instead of regurgitate them I am going to hijack his myths and insert my own opinions:
5. Housing is embarking on a full fledged recovery
DR: No, housing remains and will remain very weak.
CR: As I detailed yesterday, I think the housing market is stabilizing, but I think “bottom” calls are misguided. There will be no event-like bottom in housing. Instead, I think housing will likely flat-line for years. We could see good years and bad years, but I think we’re in the beginning to middle stages of a typical post-bubble workout period. Bubbles rarely bottom and bounce back to highs. Rather, the extremes from the previous cycle get worked off over long periods of time. In this case the high inventories and slowly recovering consumer balance sheets will come together to create a rather mundane housing environment for the next 5 years or so.
- JPMorgan CEO on Housing (woodonfire.wordpress.com)