by CalculatedRisk on 3/28/2012
“I believe we’re very close to the inflection point. People look at prices that are still coming down but all the other signs are flashing green,” [CEO Jamie Dimon] said during a job fair in New York for hiring veterans.
… “the shadow inventory everyone talks about is lower today than it was 12 months ago. It will be a lot lower 12 months from now,” he said.
Distressed inventory “is actually coming down, not going up. Homes for sale are about half what they were four years ago. You could come up with a pretty bullish case. If the economy grows, housing gets better, quicker.”
The comment on inventory declining in half is a bit of an exaggeration – actually listed inventory peaked at just over 4 million in July 2007, and is down about 40% – and inventory will increase seasonally over the next 6 months.
However I agree with Dimon on his key points. The first “bottom” for housing (new home sales, housing starts and residential investment) has already happened, and the second bottom (for prices) is close to an “inflection point”.