- CULLEN ROCHE
Here’s an important statistic that’s been getting a lot of attention lately in housing circles – the decline in inventory. I’ve been pretty vocal about the fact that I do not think there’s much downside in housing from here, but that I believe it would be extremely abnormal for a post-bubble turnaround to occur. Generally, these post-bubble eras end up working off excesses for a very long time. And I think this is a pertinent detail. As you’ll see below, inventory has come way down. But let’s not lose perspective. We’re only back to the 2006 levels when, by pre-crisis standards, this level would have been considered well above normal. I expect more working off to be done….Our friends at Sober Look have the details:
As discussed earlier the US housing recovery is progressing, albeit quite gradually, as the unsold inventory of homes continues to decline.
Barclays Capital: – We continue to see conditions in the existing home market as putting downward pressure on inventories and as supportive of a gradual cleansing of shadow inventory. Our view is that housing is in a recovery phase, but one that will be restrained by the availability of credit, pace of improvement in labor market conditions, and overhang from distressed and foreclosed properties.
- Existing Home Sales in July: 4.47 million SAAR, 6.4 months of supply (woodonfire.wordpress.com)