by Bill McBride on 9/16/2012
According to housingtracker, median asking prices are up 2.1% year-over-year in early September. We can’t read too much into this increase because these are just asking prices, and median prices can be distorted by the mix. As an example, the median asking price might have increased just because there are fewer low priced foreclosures listed for sale.
Note: The Trulia asking price index is adjusted for both mix and seasonality, but the housingtracker data is just the median, the 25th percentile and 75th percentile – and is impacted by both changes in the mix and seasonality.
But with those caveats, here is a graph of asking prices compared to the year-over-year change in the Case-Shiller composite 20 index.
The Case-Shiller index is in red. The brief period in 2010 with a year-over-year increase in the repeat sales index was related to the housing tax credit.
Also note that the 25th percentile took the biggest hit (that was probably the flood of low end foreclosures on the market).
Now the year-over-year change in median asking prices has been positive for ten consecutive months. We have to be careful about the mix (fewer foreclosures on the market), but this suggests year-over-year selling prices will stay positive.
On seasonality, asking prices peaked in June and are down slightly over the last three months. That is a reminder that the Not Seasonally Adjusted repeat sales indexes will show month-to-month declines later this year – and the focus will be on the year-over-year change.
- CR: Shiller on House Prices (woodonfire.wordpress.com)