by Bill McBride on 9/25/2012
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for July (a 3 month average of May, June and July).
This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities).
Note: Case-Shiller reports NSA, I use the SA data.
Data through July 2012, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices … showed average home prices increased by 1.5% for the 10-City Composite and by 1.6% for the 20-City Composite in July versus June 2012. For the third consecutive month, all 20 cities and both Composites recorded positive monthly changes. It would have been a fourth had prices not fallen by 0.6% in Detroit back in April.
The 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual returns of +0.6% and +1.2% in July 2012, up from their unchanged and +0.6% annual rates posted for June 2012. Fifteen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites posted better annual returns in July as compared to June 2012.
“Home prices increased again in July,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “All 20 cities and both Composites were up on the month for the third time in a row. Even better, 16 of the 20 cities and both Composites rose over the last year. Atlanta remains the weakest city but managed to cut the annual loss to just under 10%.
“Among the cities, Miami and Phoenix are both well off their bottoms with positive monthly gains since the end of 2011. Many of the markets we follow have seen some decent recovery from their respective lows – San Francisco up 20.4%, Detroit up 19.7%, Phoenix up 17.0% and Minneapolis up 16.5%, to name the top few. These were some of the markets that were hit the hardest when the housing bubble burst in 2006.
The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The Composite 10 index is off 31.7% from the peak, and up 0.4% in July (SA). The Composite 10 is up 3.7% from the post bubble low set in March (SA).
The Composite 20 index is off 31.2% from the peak, and up 0.4% (SA) in July. The Composite 20 is up 4.0% from the post-bubble low set in March (SA).
The Composite 10 SA is up 0.6% compared to July 2011.
The Composite 20 SA is up 1.2% compared to July 2011. This was the second year-over-year gain since 2010 (when the tax credit boosted prices temporarily).
The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.
Prices increased (SA) in 18 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in July seasonally adjusted (all 20 cities increased NSA). Prices in Las Vegas are off 59.8% from the peak, and prices in Dallas only off 5.9% from the peak. Note that the red column (cumulative decline through July 2012) is above previous declines for all cities.
This was at the consensus forecast and the recent change to a year-over-year increase is significant. I’ll have more on prices later.