JCHS: Over the Next Two Decades, Baby Boomers will Age in Place

Over the Next Two Decades, Baby Boomers will Age in Place

 by George Masnick Fellow
Over the next two decades, the entire Baby Boom generation (age 45-64 in 2010) will cross the 65+ age threshold. Baby Boom homeowners have dominated housing markets for so many decades that it is easy to imagine them exercising a large influence during the next two decades as they move into their senior years. A recent report from the Bipartisan Policy Commission makes just that case, arguing that the next twenty years should see significant additions to the housing stock released by aging Baby Boomers because of discontinued household headship and death.But this report fails to underscore that the vast majority of Baby Boom household dissolution won’t occur until after 2030. Only about 15 percent of the 46+ million units Baby Boomers now occupy will be turned back to the market between now and 2030, assuming cohort household dissolution rates held constant at 2000-2010 levels. This works out to about 1 million total Baby Boomer housing units returned to the market between 2010 and 2020, and another 6.2 million between 2020 and 2030.  For owner-occupied housing, these numbers are 165,000 during 2010-2020 and 5.2 million between 2020 and 2030.  If Baby Boomers are healthier and live longer than their immediate predecessors, these numbers should be even lower. Read More…

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