Calculated Risk: 2013 Housing Forecasts

2013 Housing Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 12/19/2012 

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.

Here was a summary of forecasts for 2012. Right now it looks like new home sales will be around 370 thousand this year, and total starts around 770 thousand or so.  Tom Lawler, John Burns and David Crowe (NAHB) were all very close on New Home sales for 2012.  Lawler was the closest on housing starts.

The table below shows several forecasts for 2013. (several analysts were kind enough to share their forecasts – thanks!)

From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: November 2012

From NAHB: Housing and Interest Rate Forecast, 11/29/2012 (excel)

I haven’t worked up a forecast yet for 2013. I’ve heard there are some lot issues for some of the builders (not improved until 2014), and that might limit supply. In general I expect prices to increase around the rate of inflation, and to see another solid increase in 2013 for new home sales and housing starts.

Housing Forecasts for 2013
New Home Sales (000s) Single Family Starts (000s) Total Starts (000s) House Prices1
NAHB 447 641 910 1.6%
Fannie Mae 452 659 936 1.6%2
Merrill Lynch 466 976 2.6%
Barclays 424 988 4.8%3
Wells Fargo 460 680 990 2.6%
Moody’s Analytics 500 820 1190 1.4%
1Case-Shiller unless indicated otherwise
2FHFA Purchase-Only Index
2011 Actual 306 431 609 -4.0%
2012 Estimate 370 535 770 6.0%



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