Category Archives: Home Sales

DofN: Real Home Prices and Real Borrowing Costs Since the Bottom

Real Home Prices and Real Borrowing Costs Since the Bottom

POSTED TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 04 2014

previously showed that continuously declining interest rates since 1980 have been a boon to the buying power of homeowners despite stagnant incomes. After the bursting of the housing bubble last decade and subsequent fall in home prices, the historically low interest rates that followed led to remarkably low payments for borrowers who could still qualify for mortgages these past few years. But we’ve long since put in a bottom for home prices. According to Case-Shiller’s 20 city aggregate that bottom came in February of 2012.

The chart above shows the change in real home prices (blue line) since the bottom. After February 2012 home prices began to rise while mortgage rates continued to fall. They fell enough in fact that their declines offset the rise in real home prices for another 8 months. That is, a borrower could obtain a lower mortgage payment via falling borrowing costs despite rising home prices. The bottom in terms of a monthly mortage payment didn’t come till October of 2012. The red line shows how mortgage payments have changed since then.

In short, real home prices have risen about 17% since the February 2012 bottom, but the real price in terms of borrowing costs have risen just over 26%. I don’t expect rates to leap in the near future, but if rates continue to rise with Fed tapering (they’re up about one percentage point from the bottom) it could have a notable impact on affordability for first-time buyers. On the other hand, low existing home inventory suggests there hasn’t been a significant falloff in demand yet and mortgage rates have been trending down again recently as well.

Advertisements

Leave a comment

Filed under Economy, Home Sales

Dr HousingBubble: 4 current trends in the housing market

4 current trends in the housing market: Rents holding steady nationwide, young home buyers, bidding war trends, and going after strategic defaulters.

The big motivation for large real estate investors was the yield they could potentially receive from purchasing real estate in depressed markets.  Early adopters entered the market in 2008 and 2009 and by 2010 the market was flood by big money investors.  Today we are seeing a saturation in terms of investors and yields are not worth the time for many large funds.  For example, rents in Arizona and Nevada are down from where they were in 2010 in spite of the rapid rise in housing values.  It could be because there is a saturation of rentals in these markets or simply because incomes are weak in these areas.  One thing is certain and some investors are losing their appetite for rental real estate.  Another interesting trend involves higher inventory and subsequently and ease in the volume of bidding wars.  What are some of the trends in the current housing market?

Rental analysis

us rent prices

One interesting trend is the large rise in rents for New York since 2010.  Los Angeles rents appear to be steady or falling somewhat according to the median list price.  The rental trend in Los Angeles appears the same as it does for the nation.

What is interesting is when comparing housing values:

zillow home price index

Los Angeles is one of the markets that has turned around quickly.  The trend isn’t evenly distributed as the chart above highlights.  The big jump in New York rents is interesting since home values according to the above seem to be fairly stable.  Unlike Arizona and Nevada with falling rents and incredible jumps in home values, New York would seem to justify a move up in prices when looking at rents.

The young and in debt

Americans overall receive a large portion of their reported net worth through real estate equity.  Since many young Americans bought near or at the peak, they never really had the chance to accumulate any equity growth.  Many also bought with FHA insured mortgages or low down payment loans stretching their budgets.  Because of this, net worth for older households has largely recovered from the peak but for younger households, they are still down by a whopping 40 percent from the peak:

age of household net worth

Source:  New York Times

The main reason?  Negative equity.  The debt still remains connected to peak housing values and while stocks are near record levels, real estate values nationwide still have a long way to go to reach those previous peaks.

Bidding wars easing up

Redfin has an interesting report on bidding wars. Of course the most competitive markets seem to be in California.  Take a look at the bidding war trend:

redfin bidding wars

Source:  Redfin

The main reason for this?  The largest monthly inventory increase in three years might help to ease off some of the insanity in the current market.   This might offer some wiggle room around the country but the heat is still on in manic California:

competition markets

Look how crazy the San Francisco market is in terms of competition.  In May, over 96 percent of winning bids were over asking price!  Orange County and San Diego had very high numbers here as well.  So if you are out there in this mania and are losing out, this is probably why.

Going after strategic defaulters

A large number of people strategically defaulted during the height of the bust and many thought they were off free and clear.  Now that prices are up, banks are looking into those strategic defaults from the past:

“(WaPo) [Freddie Mac spokesman Brad German] said Freddie Mac is targeting “strategic defaulters,” which the agency defines as “someone who had the means but chose to go into default, that there were no extenuating circumstances that affected their ability to pay. If you’re choosing not to pay off your mortgage, but you’re paying other bills, we would consider that strategic default.”

In 2011, Fannie and Freddie flagged 12 percent of 298,327 properties they had foreclosed on — more than 35,000 — for deficiency judgments in an attempt to collect $2.1 billion in unpaid mortgage debt, according to an inspector general’s report released in October from the Federal Housing Finance Agency.”

Americans seemed to be shocked that data was being collected on them while they post their entire lives chronicled by the minute on Facebook voluntarily.  So it should be no surprise that our GSEs were also tracking those strategic defaulters.  Now that times are good and equity is back up, you might be receiving a letter if you strategically walked away from your mortgage and had assets in other investment vehicles.

The trends suggest that rents are tight because incomes are tight.  You also see that bidding wars might be reaching an apex in terms of manic fever in some markets.  In the end, the momentum is still on the upside but for how long?  Can the Fed continue to purchase MBS and risk inflating that $3.3 trillion balance sheet even further?  The fact that inventory is rising is a good sign for most Americans.

Leave a comment

Filed under Home Sales, Housing

CR: Housing bubble: The “Wealth” is Gone, but the Debt Remains

Housing bubble: The “Wealth” is Gone, but the Debt Remains

by Bill McBride on 6/14/2013 02:00:00 PM

THE total wealth of American households has recovered from the financial crisis and Great Recession, according to the Federal Reserve Board. But … many Americans, particularly younger adults who took on heavy debt to acquire homes before the housing bubble collapsed, are lagging.

During the housing boom, said William R. Emmons, the chief economist of the Center for Household Financial Stability at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, “exactly the people you would think need to act conservatively were doing the opposite.” Homeownership rates, and mortgage debt levels, rose for younger households, as well as for less educated and minority ones. Those groups suffered more during the crisis, he said, and have been slower to recover.Mr. Emmons compiled average wealth figures for different groups from the triennial surveys … older households are down just 3 percent on average, while those headed by middle-age people are down about 10 percent. But the decline is nearly 40 percent for the younger group.

During the housing boom, households ended up with more of their wealth in real estate than before, and mortgage debt rose to record levels relative to the size of the economy. The proportion of wealth in homes is now back to close to the level of the 1990s, but the debt levels remain high by historical standards.
emphasis added

Household Real Estate Assets Percent GDPClick on graph for larger image.

This graph based on the Fed’s Flow of Funds report shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP.

As Norris noted, the bubble wealth is gone, but the debt remains (still high on a historical basis). This was especially hard on younger households since they bought during the housing bubble.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/06/housing-bubble-wealth-is-gone-but-debt.html#5ebCmySFJbleFrzC.99

Leave a comment

Filed under Home Sales, Housing

CR: NAR: Pending Home Sales index increases slightly in April

NAR: Pending Home Sales index increases slightly in April

by Bill McBride on 5/30/2013 

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Edge Up in April

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 0.3 percent to 106.0 in April from 105.7 in March, and is 10.3 percent above April 2012 when it was 96.1; the data reflect contracts but not closings.

Home contract activity is at the highest level since the index hit 110.9 in April 2010, immediately before the deadline for the home buyer tax credit. Pending sales have been above year-ago levels for the past 24 months.

The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 11.5 percent to 92.3 in April and is 17.7 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index rose 3.2 percent to 107.1 in April and is 15.1 percent higher than April 2012. Pending home sales in the South slipped 1.1 percent to an index of 119.2 in April but are 12.3 percent above a year ago. With pronounced inventory constraints, the index in the West fell 7.6 percent in April to 94.6 and is 2.6 percent below April 2012.

Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in May and June.

With limited inventory at the low end and fewer foreclosures, we might see flat or even declining existing home sales. The key is that the number of conventional sales is increasing while foreclosures and short sales decline – and that is a sign of an improving market (although with significant investor buying), even if total sales decline.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/05/nar-pending-home-sales-index-increases.html#Axk2u9O0fltFroHu.99

Leave a comment

Filed under Home Sales

CR: Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 10.9% year-over-year in March

Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 10.9% year-over-year in March

by Bill McBride on 5/28/2013  

 

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March (“March” is a 3 month average of January, February and March prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the Q1 national index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Home Prices See Strong Gains in the First Quarter of 2013 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through March 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices … showed that all three composites posted double-digit annual increases. The 10-City and 20-City Composites increased by 10.3% and 10.9% in the year to March with the national composite rising by 10.2% in the last four quarters. All 20 cities posted positive year-over-year growth.

In the first quarter of 2013, the national composite rose by 1.2%. On a monthly basis, the 10- and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.4%. Charlotte, Los Angeles, Portland, Seattle and Tampa were the five MSAs to record their largest month-over-month gains in over seven years.

“Home prices continued to climb,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Home prices in all 20 cities posted annual gains for the third month in a row. Twelve of the 20 saw prices rise at double-digit annual growth. The National Index and the 10- and 20-City Composites posted their highest annual returns since 2006.

“Phoenix again had the largest annual increase at 22.5% followed by San Francisco with 22.2% and Las Vegas with 20.6%. Miami and Tampa, the eastern end of the Sunbelt, were softer with annual gains of 10.7% and 11.8%. The weakest annual price gains were seen in New York (+2.6%), Cleveland (+4.8%) and Boston (+6.7%); even these numbers are quite substantial.

Case-Shiller House Prices IndicesClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 27.3 % from the peak, and up 1.5% in March (SA). The Composite 10 is up 10.3% from the post bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 26.6% from the peak, and up 1.3% (SA) in March. The Composite 20 is up 10.9% from the post-bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices IndicesThe second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 10.2% compared to March 2012.

The Composite 20 SA is up 10.9% compared to March 2012. This was the tenth consecutive month with a year-over-year gain and this was the largest year-over-year gain for the Composite 20 index since 2006.

Prices increased (SA) in 20 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in March seasonally adjusted. Prices in Las Vegas are off 53.6% from the peak, and prices in Denver only off 0.1% from the peak.

This was above the consensus forecast for a 10.2% YoY increase. I’ll have more on prices later.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/05/case-shiller-comp-20-house-prices.html#SuaY7sjETjl8hbZV.99

Leave a comment

Filed under Home Sales

CR: The Two Bottoms for Housing

Update: The Two Bottoms for Housing

by Bill McBride on 5/24/2013  

By request, I’ve updated the graphs in this post with the most recent data. Last year when I wrote The Housing Bottom is Here and Housing: The Two Bottoms, I pointed out there are usually two bottoms for housing: the first for new home sales, housing starts and residential investment, and the second bottom is for house prices.

For the bottom in activity, I presented a graph of Single family housing starts, New Home Sales, and Residential Investment (RI) as a percent of GDP.

When I posted that graph, the bottom wasn’t obvious to everyone. Now it is, and here is another update to that graph.

Starts, new home sales, residential Investment Click on graph for larger image.

The arrows point to some of the earlier peaks and troughs for these three measures.

The purpose of this graph is to show that these three indicators generally reach peaks and troughs together. Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly.

For the recent housing bust, the bottom was spread over a few years from 2009 into 2011. This was a long flat bottom – something a number of us predicted given the overhang of existing vacant housing units.

We could use any of these three measures to determine the first bottom, and then use the other two to confirm the bottom. These measure are very important and are probably the best leading indicators for the economy. But this says nothing about house prices.

Residential Investment and House prices The second graph compares RI as a percent of GDP with the real (adjusted for inflation) CoreLogic house price index through February.

Although the CoreLogic data only goes back to 1976, look at what happened following the early ’90s housing bust. RI as a percent of GDP bottomed in Q1 1991, but real house prices didn’t bottom until Q4 1996 (real prices were mostly flat for several years). Something similar happened in the early 1980s – first activity bottomed, and then real prices – although the two bottoms were closer in the ’80s.

Now it appears activity bottomed in 2009 through 2011 (depending on the measure) and real house prices bottomed in early 2012.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/05/update-two-bottoms-for-housing.html#Xos7EeY1TxJ1aVPg.99

Leave a comment

Filed under Economy, Home Sales

CR: A few comments on New Home Sales

A few comments on New Home Sales

by Bill McBride on 5/23/2013 

Obviously the new home sales report this morning was solid with sales above expectations and significant upward revisions to prior months. I try not to react too much to the month to month ups and downs; the key points right now are that sales are increasing and will probably continue to increase for some time.

Now that we have four months of data for 2013, one way to look at the growth rate is to use the “not seasonally adjusted” (NSA) year-to-date data.

According to the Census Bureau, there were 153 thousand new homes sold in 2013 through April, up about 26.4% from the 121 thousand sold during the same period in 2012. That is a very solid increase in sales, and this was the highest sales for these months since 2008.

Note: For 2013, estimates are sales will increase to around 450 to 460 thousand, or an increase of around 22% to 25% on an annual basis from the 369 thousand in 2012.

Although there has been a large increase in the sales rate, sales are just above the lows for previous recessions. This suggests significant upside over the next few years.  Based on estimates of household formation and demographics, I expect sales to increase to 750 to 800 thousand over the next several years – substantially higher than the current sales rate.

And an important point worth repeating: Housing is historically the best leading indicator for the economy, and this is one of the reasons I think The future’s so bright, I gotta wear shades.

And here is another update to the “distressing gap” graph that I first started posting over four years ago to show the emerging gap caused by distressed sales.  Now I’m looking for the gap to start to close over the next few years.

Distressing GapClick on graph for larger image.

The “distressing gap” graph shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales (right axis) through April 2013. This graph starts in 1994, but the relationship has been fairly steady back to the ’60s.

Following the housing bubble and bust, the “distressing gap” appeared mostly because of distressed sales. The flood of distressed sales kept existing home sales elevated, and depressed new home sales since builders weren’t able to compete with the low prices of all the foreclosed properties.

I don’t expect much of an increase in existing home sales (distressed sales will slowly decline and be offset by more conventional sales). But I do expect this gap to continue to close – mostly from an increase in new home sales.

Distressing GapAnother way to look at this is a ratio of existing to new home sales.

This ratio was fairly stable from 1994 through 2006, and then the flood of distressed sales kept the number of existing home sales elevated and depressed new home sales. (Note: This ratio was fairly stable back to the early ’70s, but I only have annual data for the earlier years).

In general the ratio has been trending down, and I expect this ratio to trend down over the next several years as the number of distressed sales declines and new home sales increase.

Note: Existing home sales are counted when transactions are closed, and new home sales are counted when contracts are signed. So the timing of sales is different.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/05/a-few-comments-on-new-home-sales.html#ajG83ZzszQ2EqyVZ.99

Leave a comment

Filed under Economy, Home Sales