Tag Archives: Building Permits

CR: Housing Starts decline sharply in April to 853,000 SAAR

Housing Starts decline sharply in April to 853,000 SAAR

by Bill McBride on 5/16/2013 

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 853,000. This is 16.5 percent below the revised March estimate of 1,021,000, but is 13.1 percent above the April 2012 rate of 754,000.

Single-family housing starts in April were at a rate of 610,000; this is 2.1 percent below the revised March figure of 623,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 234,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,017,000. This is 14.3 percent above the revised March rate of 890,000 and is 35.8 percent above the April 2012 estimate of 749,000.

Single-family authorizations in April were at a rate of 617,000; this is 3.0 percent above the revised March figure of 599,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 374,000 in April.

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.

Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) decreased sharply in April following the sharp increase in March (Multi-family is volatile month-to-month).

Single-family starts (blue) declined to 610,000 in April (Note: March was revised up from 619 thousand to 623 thousand).

The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and that housing starts have been generally increasing after moving sideways for about two years and a half years.

This was well below expectations of 969 thousand starts in April, mostly due to the sharp decrease in multi-family starts.  Total starts in April were only up 13.1% from April 2012; however single family starts were up 20.8% year-over-year.  I’ll have more later …

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/05/housing-starts-decline-sharply-in-april.html#8HKI8RCPXZelZDt8.99

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Starts and Completions: Multi-family and Single Family

Starts and Completions: Multi-family and Single Family

by Bill McBride on 10/17/2012  

Three-fourths of the way through 2012, single family starts are on pace for about 520 thousand this year, and total starts are on pace for about 750 thousand. That is an increase of about 20% from 2011.

The following table shows annual starts (total and single family) since 2005 and an estimate for 2012.

Housing Starts (000s)
Total Change Single Family Change
2005 2,068.3 1,715.8
2006 1,800.9 -12.9% 1,465.4 -14.6%
2007 1,355.0 -24.8% 1,046.0 -28.6%
2008 905.5 -33.2% 622.0 -40.5%
2009 554.0 -38.8% 445.1 -28.4%
2010 586.9 5.9% 471.2 5.9%
2011 608.8 3.7% 430.6 -8.6%
20121 750.0 23.2% 520.0 20.8%
12012 estimated

And the growth in housing starts should continue. My estimate is the US will probably add around 12 million households this decade, and assuming no excess supply, total housing starts would be 1.2 million per year, plus demolitions and 2nd home purchases. So housing starts could come close to doubling the 2012 level over the next several years – and that is one of the key reasons I think the US economy will continue to grow.

Here is an update to the graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment).

These graphs use a 12 month rolling total for NSA starts and completions.

Multifamily Starts and completionsClick on graph for larger image.

The blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions.

The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) has been increasing steadily, and completions (red line) is lagging behind – but completions will follow starts up over the course of the year (completions lag starts by about 12 months).

This means there will be an increase in multi-family deliveries next year, but still well below the 1997 through 2007 level of multi-family completions.

Single family Starts and completionsThe second graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single family home and completion – so the lines are much closer. The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions. Starts are moving up, but the increase in completions has just started (wait a few months!).

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/10/starts-and-completions-multi-family-and.html

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