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CR: Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 10.9% year-over-year in March

Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 10.9% year-over-year in March

by Bill McBride on 5/28/2013  

 

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March (“March” is a 3 month average of January, February and March prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the Q1 national index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Home Prices See Strong Gains in the First Quarter of 2013 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through March 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices … showed that all three composites posted double-digit annual increases. The 10-City and 20-City Composites increased by 10.3% and 10.9% in the year to March with the national composite rising by 10.2% in the last four quarters. All 20 cities posted positive year-over-year growth.

In the first quarter of 2013, the national composite rose by 1.2%. On a monthly basis, the 10- and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.4%. Charlotte, Los Angeles, Portland, Seattle and Tampa were the five MSAs to record their largest month-over-month gains in over seven years.

“Home prices continued to climb,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Home prices in all 20 cities posted annual gains for the third month in a row. Twelve of the 20 saw prices rise at double-digit annual growth. The National Index and the 10- and 20-City Composites posted their highest annual returns since 2006.

“Phoenix again had the largest annual increase at 22.5% followed by San Francisco with 22.2% and Las Vegas with 20.6%. Miami and Tampa, the eastern end of the Sunbelt, were softer with annual gains of 10.7% and 11.8%. The weakest annual price gains were seen in New York (+2.6%), Cleveland (+4.8%) and Boston (+6.7%); even these numbers are quite substantial.

Case-Shiller House Prices IndicesClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 27.3 % from the peak, and up 1.5% in March (SA). The Composite 10 is up 10.3% from the post bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 26.6% from the peak, and up 1.3% (SA) in March. The Composite 20 is up 10.9% from the post-bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices IndicesThe second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 10.2% compared to March 2012.

The Composite 20 SA is up 10.9% compared to March 2012. This was the tenth consecutive month with a year-over-year gain and this was the largest year-over-year gain for the Composite 20 index since 2006.

Prices increased (SA) in 20 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in March seasonally adjusted. Prices in Las Vegas are off 53.6% from the peak, and prices in Denver only off 0.1% from the peak.

This was above the consensus forecast for a 10.2% YoY increase. I’ll have more on prices later.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/05/case-shiller-comp-20-house-prices.html#SuaY7sjETjl8hbZV.99

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CR: Case-Shiller: House Prices increased 5.5% year-over-year in November

Case-Shiller: House Prices increased 5.5% year-over-year in November

by Bill McBride on 1/29/2013 

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November (a 3 month average of September, October and November).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities).

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Home Prices Extend Gains According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through November 2012, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices … showed home prices rose 4.5% for the 10-City Composite and 5.5% for the 20-City Composite in the 12 months ending in November 2012.

“The November monthly figures were stronger than October, with 10 cities seeing rising prices versus seven the month before.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. Phoenix and San Francisco were both up 1.4% in November followed by Minneapolis up 1.0%. On the down side, Chicago was again amongst the weakest with a drop of 1.3% for November.

“Winter is usually a weak period for housing which explains why we now see about half the cities with falling month-to-month prices compared to 20 out of 20 seeing rising prices last summer. The better annual price changes also point to seasonal weakness rather than a reversal in the housing market. Further evidence that the weakness is seasonal is seen in the seasonally adjusted figures: only New York saw prices fall on a seasonally adjusted basis while Cleveland was flat.

Case-Shiller House Prices IndicesClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 30.7% from the peak, and up 0.5% in November (SA). The Composite 10 is up 5.3% from the post bubble low set in March (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 29.8% from the peak, and up 0.6% (SA) in November. The Composite 20 is up 6.0% from the post-bubble low set in March (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices IndicesThe second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 4.5% compared to November 2011.

The Composite 20 SA is up 5.5% compared to November 2011. This was the sixth consecutive month with a year-over-year gain since 2010 (when the tax credit boosted prices temporarily).  This was the largest year-over-year gain for the Composite 20 index since 2006.

The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Case-Shiller Price DeclinesPrices increased (SA) in 18 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in November seasonally adjusted (also 10 of 20 cities increased NSA). Prices in Las Vegas are off 57.6% from the peak, and prices in Dallas only off 3.8% from the peak. Note that the red column (cumulative decline through November 2012) is above previous declines for all cities.

This was slightly below the consensus forecast for a 5.8% YoY increase. I’ll have more on prices later.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/01/case-shiller-house-prices-increased-55.html#YpEZ8FEwZLAJIWKB.99

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Calculated Risk: Housing: 2.5% Year over Year change in Asking Prices

Housing: 2.5% Year over Year change in Asking Prices

by Bill McBride on 12/30/2012  

According to housingtracker, median asking prices were up 2.5% year-over-year in December. We can’t read too much into this increase because these are just asking prices, and median prices can be distorted by the mix. As an example, the median asking price might have increased just because there are fewer low priced foreclosures listed for sale.

Note: The Trulia asking price index is adjusted for both mix and seasonality, but the housingtracker data is just the median, the 25th percentile and 75th percentile – and is impacted by both changes in the mix and seasonality.

But with those caveats, here is a graph of asking prices compared to the year-over-year change in the Case-Shiller composite 20 index.

HousingTracker asking pricesClick on graph for larger image.

The Case-Shiller index is in red.  The Case-Shiller Composite 20 index was up 4.3% year-over-year in October, and will probably be up close to 6% in 2012.

The brief period in 2010 with a year-over-year increase in the repeat sales index was related to the housing tax credit.

Also note that the 25th percentile took the biggest hit (that was probably the flood of low end foreclosures on the market).

Now the year-over-year change in median asking prices has been positive for thirteen consecutive months. We have to be careful about the mix (fewer foreclosures on the market), but this suggests year-over-year selling prices will stay positive.

On seasonality, asking prices peaked in June and are down about 4% over the last six months.   I expect this measure of asking prices to start increasing seasonally in February, and to stay positive year-over-year.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/12/housing-25-year-over-year-change-in.html#uuhKsY6l5FU8GvaE.99

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House Prices: Case-Shiller to turn negative month-to-month seasonally in October

House Prices: Case-Shiller to turn negative month-to-month seasonally in October

by Bill McBride on 12/01/2012  

I expect the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) index to decline month-to-month in October. This will not be a sign of impending doom – or another collapse in house prices – it is just the normal seasonal pattern. I expect smaller month-to-month declines this winter than for the same months last year.

Even in normal times house prices tend to be stronger in the spring and early summer, than in the fall and winter. Currently there is a stronger than normal seasonal pattern because conventional sales are following the normal pattern (more sales in the spring and summer), but distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) happen all year. So distressed sales have a larger negative impact on prices in the fall and winter.

In the coming months, the key will be to watch the year-over-year change in house prices and to compare to the NSA lows in early 2012. I think the house price indexes have already bottomed, and will be up about 5% year-over-year when prices reach the usual seasonal bottom in early 2013.

House Prices month-to-month change NSAClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the month-to-month change in the CoreLogic and NSA Case-Shiller Composite 20 index over the last several years (both through September). The CoreLogic index turned negative month-to-month in the September report (CoreLogic is a 3 month weighted average, with the most recent month weighted the most). Case-Shiller NSA will probably turn negative month-to-month in the October report (also a three month average, but not weighted).

Case Shiller Seasonal FactorsThe second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller composite 20 index. The factors started to change near the peak of the bubble, and really increased during the bust.

Note: I was one of several people to question this change in the seasonal factor – and this led to S&P Case-Shiller reporting the NSA numbers.

It appears the seasonal factor has stopped increasing, and I expect that over the next several years – as the percent of distressed sales decline – the seasonal factors will slowly move back towards the previous levels.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/12/house-prices-case-shiller-to-turn.html#CeQUi7dpzMuZir9I.99

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Read of the Day: A Thousand Bucks Buys You a Lot of House Right Now

A Thousand Bucks Buys You a Lot of House Right Now

by Ben Engebreth — Department of Numbers

POSTED SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 25 2012

The chart below shows the increasing amounts of money you’re able to borrow on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage with a $1,000 payment since 1971. I’ve been meaning to create this chart since I saw Matt Yglesias’ post last month on the buying power of $1,000 over the last few years. As you can see, the trend isn’t new. The amount that $1,000 buys you (in 2012 dollars) with a 30-year fixed rate mortgage has grown from roughly $64,000 in 1981 to $226,000 last month!

Of course the high rates of the early 1980s were as much of an anomaly as low rates are today. But even compared to the 6-8% 30-year mortgage rate range that prevailed in the 1990s, $1,000 still buys you about $75,000 more now.

But there’s a limit to how far left we can move on the chart below. The 30-year fixed was 3.38% last month. I wouldn’t have imagined it could ever get that low, but certainly we won’t ever see 1% or even 2% rates. There really can’t be much more oomph left in the price stimulus provided by falling mortgage rates.

Which brings me back to this chart of Case-Shiller real home prices and the financing cost of Case-Shiller real home prices that I showed a couple of months ago.

We’ve seen a huge drop in real home prices since 2005 and have only recently found a floor and stabilization. But when you look at the payments on homes purchased with borrowed money (the blue real borrowing cost line), the cost in terms of a monthly mortgage payment continues to decline because mortgage rates continue to hit new lows. In terms of the monthly mortgage payment, homes cost less than they ever have for the history of the Case-Shiller series. Truly, $1,000 buys you more home than it has in quite a while. You know, assuming you can get a mortgage.

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Real House Prices and Real Borrowing Costs

Real House Prices and Real Borrowing Costs

by Ben Engebreth — Department of Numbers

POSTED TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 18 2012

Real home prices and real borrowing costs

The chart above shows real house prices (in orange) defined as the national Case-Shiller index adjusted for inflation via the CPI less shelter series. I’ve normalized the series to equal 1000 at its most recent value in April 2012. Real house prices peaked at the beginning of 2006 and are now back to early 1999 (and before that mid 1990) levels.

If you look at historic mortgage rates over that time you can also calculate the real cost of borrowing on a value that changes with the real home price series. That new series is blue in the chart. Here I’ve simply calculated the borrowing cost for the indexed value of the Case-Shiller series at each point in time. For instance, in April of this year, the real Case-Shiller series was 1000. Taking a 30-year mortgage on $1,000 yields a monthly payment of roughly $4.72 (at April’s 3.91% prevailing mortgage rate). Run that calculation for the whole real house price series and you get the blue line.

For me, the interesting observations here are that home prices, when looked at in terms of payments in real dollars, are cheaper now than they have been since the Case-Shiller index came into being. Also, the late 80s / early 90s regional housing mini-bubble shows up more prominently when you look at it in terms of real borrowing costs instead of real house prices.

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Housing: Year over Year change in Asking Prices

Housing: Year over Year change in Asking Prices

by Bill McBride on 9/16/2012 

According to housingtracker, median asking prices are up 2.1% year-over-year in early September. We can’t read too much into this increase because these are just asking prices, and median prices can be distorted by the mix. As an example, the median asking price might have increased just because there are fewer low priced foreclosures listed for sale.

Note: The Trulia asking price index is adjusted for both mix and seasonality, but the housingtracker data is just the median, the 25th percentile and 75th percentile – and is impacted by both changes in the mix and seasonality.

But with those caveats, here is a graph of asking prices compared to the year-over-year change in the Case-Shiller composite 20 index.

HousingTracker asking pricesClick on graph for larger image.

The Case-Shiller index is in red. The brief period in 2010 with a year-over-year increase in the repeat sales index was related to the housing tax credit.

Also note that the 25th percentile took the biggest hit (that was probably the flood of low end foreclosures on the market).

Now the year-over-year change in median asking prices has been positive for ten consecutive months. We have to be careful about the mix (fewer foreclosures on the market), but this suggests year-over-year selling prices will stay positive.

On seasonality, asking prices peaked in June and are down slightly over the last three months. That is a reminder that the Not Seasonally Adjusted repeat sales indexes will show month-to-month declines later this year – and the focus will be on the year-over-year change.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/09/housing-year-over-year-change-in-asking.html

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