Tag Archives: CoreLogic

CR: The Two Bottoms for Housing

Update: The Two Bottoms for Housing

by Bill McBride on 5/24/2013  

By request, I’ve updated the graphs in this post with the most recent data. Last year when I wrote The Housing Bottom is Here and Housing: The Two Bottoms, I pointed out there are usually two bottoms for housing: the first for new home sales, housing starts and residential investment, and the second bottom is for house prices.

For the bottom in activity, I presented a graph of Single family housing starts, New Home Sales, and Residential Investment (RI) as a percent of GDP.

When I posted that graph, the bottom wasn’t obvious to everyone. Now it is, and here is another update to that graph.

Starts, new home sales, residential Investment Click on graph for larger image.

The arrows point to some of the earlier peaks and troughs for these three measures.

The purpose of this graph is to show that these three indicators generally reach peaks and troughs together. Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly.

For the recent housing bust, the bottom was spread over a few years from 2009 into 2011. This was a long flat bottom – something a number of us predicted given the overhang of existing vacant housing units.

We could use any of these three measures to determine the first bottom, and then use the other two to confirm the bottom. These measure are very important and are probably the best leading indicators for the economy. But this says nothing about house prices.

Residential Investment and House prices The second graph compares RI as a percent of GDP with the real (adjusted for inflation) CoreLogic house price index through February.

Although the CoreLogic data only goes back to 1976, look at what happened following the early ’90s housing bust. RI as a percent of GDP bottomed in Q1 1991, but real house prices didn’t bottom until Q4 1996 (real prices were mostly flat for several years). Something similar happened in the early 1980s – first activity bottomed, and then real prices – although the two bottoms were closer in the ’80s.

Now it appears activity bottomed in 2009 through 2011 (depending on the measure) and real house prices bottomed in early 2012.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/05/update-two-bottoms-for-housing.html#Xos7EeY1TxJ1aVPg.99

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PragCap: Housing Prices Are Booming Again….

Housing Prices Are Booming Again….

03/05/2013

Looks like the nominal wealth boom isn’t solely a stock market phenomenon.  The Fed might just be getting the boom they want (at least in the asset classes that make people feel wealthier than they really are)….According to CoreLogic, home prices in the USA are back to bubble-era type appreciation levels:

“CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), a leading residential property information, analytics and services provider, today released its January CoreLogic HPI report.

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 9.7 percent in January 2013 compared to January 2012. This change represents the biggest increase since April 2006 and the 11 th consecutive monthly increase in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 0.7 percent in January 2013 compared to December 2012. The HPI analysis shows that all but two states, Delaware and Illinois, are experiencing year-over-year price gains.”

Chart via CoreLogic:

clogic Housing Prices Are Booming Again....

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PRAGCAP: Home Prices – Is the Boom Back?

Home Prices – Is the Boom Back?

02/06/2013

If you’re looking for things I’ve been wrong about recently you can chalk housing up on the list.  Last year I said I expected housing’s downside was fairly limited and said that long-term buyers shouldn’t hesitate to buy, but that the market was likely to muddle through in a classic post-bubble workout period.  Now, it might be a bit too early to declare a new boom, but the latest data from CoreLogic certainly looks very positive and has to have us all asking the question – is the next boom already beginning?

More via CoreLogic:

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 8.3 percent in December 2012 compared to December 2011. This change represents the biggest increase since May 2006 and the 10th consecutive monthly increase in home prices nationally.

“December marked 10 consecutive months of year-over-year home price improvements, and the strongest growth since the height of the last housing boom more than six years ago,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “We expect price growth to continue in January as our Pending HPI shows strong year-over-year appreciation.”

“We are heading into 2013 with home prices on the rebound,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “The upward trend in home prices in 2012 was broad based with 46 of 50 states registering gains for the year. All signals point to a continued improvement in the fundamentals underpinning the U.S. housing market recovery.”

clogic Home Prices   Is the Boom Back?

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CoreLogic: Home Prices Jump 7% in November — PragCap

CoreLogic: Home Prices Jump 7% in November

01/15/2013

More good news from the housing front.  It looks like house prices have caught a bit of a bit into the end of the year.  CoreLogic says prices are up 7.4% versus November 2011 and should rise by even more in December:

“Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 7.4 percent in November 2012 compared to November 2011. This change represents the biggest increase since May 2006 and the ninth consecutive increase in home prices nationally on a year-over-year basis. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 0.3 percent in November 2012 compared to October 2012*

The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that December 2012 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 7.9 percent on a year-over-year basis from December 2011 and fall by 0.5 percent on a month-over-month basis from November 2012 reflecting a seasonal winter slowdown.

“As we close out 2012 the pending index suggests prices will remain strong,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Given that the recently released Qualified Mortgage rules issued by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau are not expected to significantly restrict credit availability relative to today, the gains made in 2012 will likely be sustained into 2013.”

cl CoreLogic: Home Prices Jump 7% in November

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House Prices will decline month-to-month Seasonally later in 2012

House Prices will decline month-to-month Seasonally later in 2012

by Bill McBride on 8/08/2012 

Sometimes it helps to state the obvious in advance …

The Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) house price indexes will show month-to-month declines later this year. This should come as no surprise and will not be a sign of impending doom.

The key is to watch the year-over-year change and to compare to the NSA lows earlier this year. I think house prices have already bottomed, and will be up slightly year-over-year when prices reach the usual seasonal bottom in early 2013.

House Prices month-to-month change NSAClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the month-to-month change in the CoreLogic and NSA Case-Shiller Composite 20 index over the last several years. There is a clear seasonal pattern. In recent years the seasonal pattern has been exaggerated by the large number of foreclosures – foreclosures tend to be fairly steady all year, but conventional sales are stronger in the spring and early summer, and weaker in the fall and winter. This leads to more downward pressure from foreclosures in the fall and winter.

Note: The CoreLogic index tends to lead Case-Shiller. Both are three month averages, but CoreLogic is weighted to the most recent month.

Right now I’m guessing both indexes will report negative month-to-month price changes for August or September (reported in October or November). Just something to be aware of …

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/08/house-prices-will-decline-month-to.html

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U.S. House Prices Should Generally Rise Going Forward, But Not Without Some Dips

U.S. House Prices Should Generally Rise Going Forward, But Not Without Some Dips.

U.S. home prices started to rise in recent months, and Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services expects this to continue into the summer, given the seasonal trends of the past few years. We don’t expect this rise to be uninterrupted, however. Prices will likely dip again later this year as newly foreclosed properties reach the market, and then pick up again slightly next year. Looking at the big picture, the U.S. economy is growing too slowly to have any boosting effect on the housing market at this time. Economic factors, such as weak employment growth and the Euro debt crisis, could somewhat thwart the housing recovery. Additionally, the U.S. fiscal cliff could be a key risk if Congress does not reach a decision by the end of the year. Despite these potential risks, we do believe that prices will generally improve this year from last.

After declining for seven straight months, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City home price index rose 1.3% month-over-month (MoM) in April. Prices are now 34% below their mid-2006 peak. We expect May home price data (S&P/Case-Shiller reports on July 31st) to continue to highlight this improving trend.

CoreLogic’s home prices rose 2.5% in April and 1.8% in May, the second and third straight monthly increases, respectively. The FHFA index was up 1.7%, also the third monthly gain. National home prices were higher in April for all three major indices, and CoreLogic already reported higher prices for May. We have observed that regional home prices are following the same trend, particularly in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C.

We expect home sales to continue to improve during the summer months. The slow rise in sales has nudged gradual upticks in the U.S. housing market, in our view. Existing home sales were flat in May, but dropped 5.4% in June; however, sales rose 4.5% on a year-over-year (YOY) basis. In addition, median prices rose 5% in June and inventory dropped 3.2%. Pending sales were up 5.9% in May, which is a positive sign for existing home sales in the coming months. New home sales were strong in May, up 7.6%. Mortgage rates are hitting a new low in July in tandem with housing affordability’s first-quarter record high. Mortgage credit is still limited; housing demand and prices could suffer later this year because of a slow economy and weak job growth, as well as seasonal effects.

Signs point positive. The amount of distressed properties still on the market (shadow inventory) is gradually leveling off, and the latest home prices are responding positively to reduce supply. Additionally, foreclosures have stabilized in recent months.

Despite the overall stabilization of loans in foreclosure, the inventory is still growing in judicial states. In general, mortgage modifications, negative equity, and slowing foreclosures have reduced housing supply in recent months, helping home prices to recover. According to CoreLogic, about 11 million homeowners who have more debt in their existing mortgage than the current market value on the home (or underwater borrowers) have generally avoided placing their houses on the market. This has helped to lower supply and push home prices higher.

To read the full report, click here.

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Housing Inventory Shows Signs of Improvement — PragCap

Housing Inventory Shows Signs of Improvement

22 JUNE 2012

By Walter Kurtz, Sober Look

One of the negative economic surprises this morning was the existing home sales number which dropped 1.5% in May. Not a real surprise, right? Slowing economy is resulting is slower sales. But it turns out there is something else afoot here. According to NAR, sales have slowed because of  housing supply shortages.

NAR: – Limited supplies of housing inventory held back existing-home sales in May, but sales maintained a strong lead over year-ago levels and home prices are on a sustained uptrend in all regions, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Total existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, declined 1.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.55 million in May from 4.62 million in April, but are 9.6 percent above the 4.15 million-unit pace in May 2011.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said inventory shortages in certain areas have been building all year. “The slight pullback in monthly home sales is more likely due to supply constraints rather than softening demand. The normal seasonal upturn in inventory did not occur this spring,” he said. “Even with the monthly decline, home sales have moved markedly higher with 11 consecutive months of gains over the same month a year earlier.”

There are broad-based shortages of inventory in the lower price ranges in much of the country except the Northeast, and in the West supply is extremely tight in all price ranges except for the upper end.

Is that possible? What happened to the “shadow” housing inventory (“millions” of homes)?

NAR: – “Realtors in Western states have been calling for an expedited process to get additional foreclosed properties onto the market because they have more buyers than available property,” Yun added. Widespread inventory shortages also are found in much of Florida.

Is the shadow demand finally catching up with the supply? House prices for actual transactions are indeed showing signs of improvement. FHFA House Price Index was up again, an increase of 0.8% for May.

Source: JPMorgan

JPMorgan: – The FHFA house price index rose 0.8% samr in April and is up a cumulative 3.1% over the past six months. The more widely followed Case-Shiller house price index is out next Tuesday. House prices are firming after an extended post-homebuyer tax credit downleg.

We are still getting hate mail for this post on US housing from the beginning of the year. But the data above is becoming more difficult to argue with.

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