Tag Archives: existing Home Inventory

CR: Existing Home Sales in April: 4.97 million SAAR, 5.2 months of supply

Existing Home Sales in April: 4.97 million SAAR, 5.2 months of supply

by Bill McBride on 5/22/2013  

NOTE: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testimony Testimony by Chairman Bernanke on the economic outlook 

The NAR reports: April Existing-Home Sales Up but Constrained

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 0.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million in April from an upwardly revised 4.94 million in March. Resale activity is 9.7 percent above the 4.53 million-unit level in April 2012.

Total housing inventory at the end of April rose 11.9 percent, a seasonal increase to 2.16 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.2-month supply at the current sales pace, compared with 4.7 months in March. Listed inventory is 13.6 percent below a year ago, when there was a 6.6-month supply, with current availability tighter in the lower price ranges.

Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in April 2013 (4.97 million SAAR) were 0.6% higher than last month, and were 9.7% above the April 2012 rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home InventoryAccording to the NAR, inventory increased to 2.16 million in April up from 1.93 million in March.   Inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually increases from the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer (so some of this increase was seasonal).

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory decreased 13.6% year-over-year in April compared to April 2012. This is the 26th consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory, but the smallest YoY decrease since 2011 (I expect the YoY decrease to get smaller all year).

Months of supply increased to 5.2 months in April.

This was  just below expectations of sales of 5.0 million.  For existing home sales, the key number is inventory – and inventory is still down sharply year-over-year, although the declines are slowing.   This was a solid report.  I’ll have more later …

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/05/existing-home-sales-in-april-497.html#jOuSfqHdtIQ06j4D.99

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CR: Existing Home Sales in March: 4.92 million SAAR, 4.7 months of supply

Existing Home Sales in March: 4.92 million SAAR, 4.7 months of supply

by Bill McBride on 4/22/2013 

The NAR reports: March Existing-Home Sales Slip Due to Limited Inventory, Prices Maintain Uptrend

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, declined 0.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.92 million in March from a downwardly revised 4.95 million in February, but remain 10.3 percent higher than the 4.46 million-unit pace in March 2012.

Total housing inventory at the end of March increased 1.6 percent to 1.93 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 4.7-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.6 months in February. Listed inventory remains 16.8 percent below a year ago when there was a 6.2-month supply.

Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in March 2013 (4.92 million SAAR) were 0.6% lower than last month, and were 10.3% above the March 2012 rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home InventoryAccording to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.93 million in March up from 1.90 million in February.   Inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually increases from the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer (so some of this increase was seasonal).

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory decreased 16.8% year-over-year in March compared to March 2012. This is the 25th consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory, but the smallest YoY decrease since 2011 (I expect the YoY decrease to get smaller all year).

Months of supply increased to 4.7 months in March.

This was below expectations of sales of 5.03 million, but close to Tom Lawler’s forecast.  For existing home sales, the key number is inventory – and the sharp year-over-year decline in inventory is a positive for housing.   This was a solid report.  I’ll have more later …

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/04/existing-home-sales-in-march-492.html#5X5eRZxguJc0FXSV.99

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CR: Existing Home Inventory is up 7.5% year-to-date on March 25th

Existing Home Inventory is up 7.5% year-to-date on March 25th

by Bill McBride on 3/25/2013 

Weekly Update: One of key questions for 2013 is Will Housing inventory bottom this year?. Since this is a very important question, I’m tracking inventory weekly this year.

In normal times, there is a clear seasonal pattern for inventory, with the low point for inventory in late December or early January, and then peaking in mid-to-late summer.

The NAR data is monthly and released with a lag.  However Ben at Housing Tracker (Department of Numbers) has provided me some weekly inventory data for the last several years. This is displayed on the graph below as a percentage change from the first week of the year (to normalize the data).

In 2010 (blue), inventory followed the normal seasonal pattern, however in 2011 and 2012, there was only a small increase in inventory early in the year, followed by a sharp decline for the rest of the year.

So far – through March 25th – inventory is increasing faster than in 2011 and 2012. Housing Tracker reports inventory is down -21.2% compared to the same week in 2012 – still a rapid year-over-year decline.

Exsiting Home Sales Weekly dataClick on graph for larger image.

Note: the data is a little weird for early 2011 (spikes down briefly).

In 2010, inventory was up 15% by the end of March, and close to 20% by the end of April.

For 2011 and 2012, inventory only increased about 5% at the peak and then declined for the remainder of the year.

So far in 2013, inventory is up 7.5% (above the peak percentage increase for 2011 and 2012) Right now I think inventory will not bottom until 2014, but it is still possible that inventory will bottom this yea

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/03/existing-home-inventory-is-up-75-year.html#WpOCS7ccU6hgPa1U.99

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CR: Existing Home Sales in February: 4.98 million SAAR, 4.7 months of supply

Existing Home Sales in February: 4.98 million SAAR, 4.7 months of supply

by Bill McBride on 3/21/2013 

The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales and Prices Continue to Rise in February

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 0.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.98 million in February from an upwardly revised 4.94 million in January, and are 10.2 percent above the 4.52 million-unit level seen in February 2012.

Total housing inventory at the end of February rose 9.6 percent to 1.94 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 4.7-month supply 2 at the current sales pace, up from 4.3 months in January, which was the lowest supply since May 2005. Listed inventory is 19.2 percent below a year ago when there was a 6.4-month supply.

Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in February 2013 (4.98 million SAAR) were 0.8% higher than last month, and were 10.2% above the February 2012 rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home InventoryAccording to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.94 million in February up from 1.77 million in January.   Inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventor usually increases from the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer (so some of this increase was seasonal).

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year InventoryInventory decreased 19.2% year-over-year in February from February 2012. This is the 24th consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory, but the smallest YoY decrease since 2011 (I expect the YoY decrease to get smaller all year).

Months of supply increased to 4.7 months in February.

This was close to expectations of sales of 5.01 million. For existing home sales, the key number is inventory – and the sharp year-over-year decline in inventory is a positive for housing. I’ll have more later …

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/03/existing-home-sales-in-february-498.html#YpMfUChRv3AXLm7L.99

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CR: Existing Home Inventory up 3.6% year-to-date in late February

Existing Home Inventory up 3.6% year-to-date in late February

by Bill McBride on 2/25/2013  

Weekly Update: One of key questions for 2013 is Will Housing inventory bottom this year?. Since this is a very important question, I’ll be tracking inventory weekly for the next few months.

If inventory does bottom, we probably will not know for sure until late in the year. In normal times, there is a clear seasonal pattern for inventory, with the low point for inventory in late December or early January, and then peaking in mid-to-late summer.

The NAR data is monthly and released with a lag.  However Ben at Housing Tracker (Department of Numbers) kindly sent me some weekly inventory data for the last several years. This is displayed on the graph below as a percentage change from the first week of the year.

In 2010 (blue), inventory followed the normal seasonal pattern, however in 2011 and 2012, there was only a small increase in inventory early in the year, followed by a sharp decline for the rest of the year.

So far – through late February – it appears inventory is increasing at a sluggish rate.

Exsiting Home Sales Weekly dataClick on graph for larger image.

Note: the data is a little weird for early 2011 (spikes down briefly).

The key will be to see how much inventory increases over the next few months. In 2010, inventory was up 8% by early March, and up 15% by the end of March.

For 2011 and 2012, inventory only increased about 5% at the peak.

So far in 2013, inventory is up 3.6%.   If inventory doesn’t increase more soon, then the bottom for inventory might not be until 2014.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/02/existing-home-inventory-up-36-year-to.html#sY2JS9L3XSYtKg8I.99

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PragCap: Is the USA Facing a Housing Shortage?

Is the USA Facing a Housing Shortage?

02/25/2013

By Walter Kurtz, Sober Look

Homes available for sale as well as the housing supplies measured in months are now at pre-recession levels, while household formation continues to recover (see post). This development was predicted by William Wheaton back in 2009 (see figure 1).

Forbes: – Most striking however is the fact that inventory has contracted to its lowest level since December 1999, more than 13 years ago. The number of available homes, which is not seasonally adjusted, fell 4.9% from December and is 25.3% lower than a year ago. With 1.74 million homes on the market, at the current sales pace, supply will be exhausted in just over four months. It represents the lowest housing supply since April 2005. In a normal market, a healthy supply level is about six months.

A number of economists continue to talk about the shadow inventory – the millions of homes that are “about to hit the market” as homeowners have or shortly will fail on their mortgages. Some evidence suggests that in the more depressed housing areas banks are indeed sitting on foreclosed properties, unwilling to sell. But a number of banks have also been aggressively modifying mortgages, reducing principal and interest, and therefore cutting delinquencies.

Clearly many more homes will be hitting the markets this year. But it really doesn’t make much difference if people who move out of these homes end up buying or renting – they need to live somewhere. And according to the Census Bureau, rental vacancies are near a 10-year low.

Ironically, the relatively tight credit conditions are (at least partially) restricting new home construction. Completion of new housing units has improved recently but remains at historically depressed levels – certainly not enough to keep up with the population growth and family formation (see figure 2). The danger of course is that with spring approaching (generally a period of increased demand for homes), some markets could overheat due to tight supplies, worsening home affordability and dampening sales numbers.

sl11 Is the USA Facing a Housing Shortage?

(Figure 1 – Source: JPMorgan)

sl21 Is the USA Facing a Housing Shortage?

(Figure 2 – Source: NY Fed)

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CR: Existing Home Sales in January: 4.92 million SAAR, 4.2 months of supply

Existing Home Sales in January: 4.92 million SAAR, 4.2 months of supply

by Bill McBride on 2/21/2013 

The NAR reports: January Existing-Home Sales Hold with Steady Price Gains, Seller’s Market Developing

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 0.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.92 million in January from a downwardly revised 4.90 million in December, and are 9.1 percent above the 4.51 million-unit pace in January 2012.

Total housing inventory at the end of January fell 4.9 percent to 1.74 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 4.2-month supply 2 at the current sales pace, down from 4.5 months in December, and is the lowest housing supply since April 2005 when it was also 4.2 months.

Listed inventory is 25.3 percent below a year ago when there was a 6.2-month supply. Raw unsold inventory is at the lowest level since December 1999 when there were 1.71 million homes on the market.

Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in January 2013 (4.92 million SAAR) were 0.4% higher than last month, and were 9.1% above the January 2012 rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home InventoryAccording to the NAR, inventory declined to 1.74 million in January down from 1.83 million in December. This is the lowest level of inventory since December 1999. Inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and usually inventory decreases from the seasonal high in mid-summer to the seasonal lows in December and January.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year InventoryInventory decreased 25.3% year-over-year in January from January 2012. This is the 23rd consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory.

Months of supply declined to 4.2 months in January, the lowest level since April 2005.

This was at expectations of sales of 4.94 million. For existing home sales, the key number is inventory – and the sharp year-over-year decline in inventory is a positive for housing. I’ll have more later …

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/02/existing-home-sales-in-january-492.html#XR4kawAQbyL9u0A2.99

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