Tag Archives: Housing

PragCap: Your Housing “Recovery” in Charts….

Your Housing “Recovery” in Charts….

02/20/2013

The post Your Housing “Recovery” in Charts…. appeared first on PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM.

I’ve become much more constructive about housing in the last year.  But I still don’t understand the euphoria in some circles.  For the most part, I am still in the camp that says we’re in a post-bubble “work out” period.  That means the big price declines are past us, but the upside remains modest in most markets.

That said, I still don’t see the recovery in the various housing indices that many are raving about.  To me, this looks almost exactly like what I’ve been predicting all along.  A sideways market that is consistent with past bubble experiences.  Think Nasdaq, Shanghai, Gold in the 80s, etc.  In essence, it looks like a big L.

So far, the price action in US housing doesn’t look like anything that unusual for a post-bubble environment and it looks a lot more like a post-bubble “work out” than a recovery to me.  Obviously, I am biased towards believing that my view will be right, but you tell me what the pictures show….

Charts via Orcam Financial Group:

hr1 Your Housing Recovery in Charts....

hr2 Your Housing Recovery in Charts....

Leave a comment

Filed under Housing

Read of the Day: Housing Conditions and the Economic Impact of Superstorm Sandy on the Region

Just Released: Press Briefing on Housing Conditions and the Economic Impact of Superstorm Sandy on the Region

Jaison R. Abel, Jason Bram, and Claire KramerAt today’s regional economic press briefing, we provided an update on housing conditions as well as an initial assessment of superstorm Sandy’s economic impact on the region.

 

        The housing sector is an important part of the overall economy, and it has played a key role in shaping the Great Recession and the recovery that has followed. While our region was largely spared the worst of the housing bust, many households—particularly in northern New Jersey and areas around New York City—continue to feel its economic consequences. Fortunately,housing conditions here have begun to show signs of steady improvement. Home prices in much of the region have gradually increased throughout the year and other measures of housing-related activity appear to have stabilized, albeit at low levels. In addition, indicators of housing-related financial stress that we monitor appear to have eased somewhat in recent months. Taken together, these trends suggest that many of our region’s housing markets have reached an important point in the recovery process. At the same time, it’s important to recognize that housing conditions in the region’s most depressed markets remain sluggish. In addition, owing in large part to the long foreclosure process in New York and New Jersey, our region faces a large and growing backlog of foreclosures. So, while there have been some encouraging signs in our region’s housing markets this year, going forward there are still some significant challenges to broadening and sustaining the recovery that’s under way.One immediate challenge is rebuilding and recovering from Sandy. Geographically, it appears that the hardest-hit areas were the coastal communities of Queens, Staten Island, Brooklyn, Long Island, Lower Manhattan, and the New Jersey shore. Physical damage to the region was primarily to homes and personal property, commercial property, and infrastructure. An immediate housing priority is the provision of shelter to those whose homes were severely damaged. As such, housing task forces have been formed to identify local housing needs, catalog vacant rental housing units, and investigate temporary housing options. On the business front, the focus has been on securing gap financing for firms to finance short-term cash flow while they restart their operations and await insurance settlements.

In assessing the impact of natural disasters like Sandy, it’s important to recognize that some activity that appears to be lost may in fact only be postponed or shifted elsewhere within the region. Moreover, a surge in economic activity typically follows a natural disaster as the region rebuilds much of the damaged or destroyed property and infrastructure, often with resources from outside the region, like FEMA assistance and private insurance. At the same time, welfare losses resulting from the pain and suffering of people who lost homes or loved ones, as well as inconveniences like extra time spent commuting, are often neglected when assessing the impact of natural disasters such as Sandy.

For more information on housing conditions and Sandy’s economic impact on the region, see the regional economic press briefing webpage.

Disclaimer
The views expressed in this post are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors.

Leave a comment

Filed under Housing