Tag Archives: National Association of Home Builder

Eye on Housing: Residential Construction Spending Flat in January

Residential Construction Spending Flat in January

from Eye on Housing by Robert Dietz

Private residential construction spending was relatively unchanged for the first month of 2013 due to declines in the volatile remodeling spending category. Nonetheless, total residential construction spending remains near post-2009 highs and has experienced growth in 15 of the last 17 months according to data from the Census Bureau.

Spending on new single-family homes continued to expand, rising 3.6% over December’s pace. On a year-over-year basis, the nominal value of spending on new single-family homes has risen over 30%. Since bottoming out around the midway point of 2009, construction spending has surged 65%. The current NAHB forecast calls for single-family housing starts to grow in 2013, with a slower pace of expansion anticipated during the first quarter of this year.

Constr Spending Feb

Construction spending on new multifamily projects also increased in January, growing 1.7% from December 2012. Gains in spending have occurred in each of the last 16 months. On a year-over-year basis, the level of apartment spending has increased almost 55% and has – as of January – more than doubled from the cyclical low set in August 2010.

Offsetting the gains in single-family and multifamily construction, January saw a 4% drop in improvement spending that resulted flat headline growth for total private residential category.  The 3-month moving average of remodeling spending was down almost 2% but remains near post-2007 highs.

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Positive Run Continues for Residential Construction Spending

The post Positive Run Continues for Residential Construction Spending appeared first on Eye on Housing.

Private residential construction spending jumped 2.2% on a month-to-month basis during December 2012. The initial estimate of a 0.4% gain for November was moved up slightly to a 0.6% increase, but the October number was pushed appreciably higher from 1.3% to 3.2%. Spending has registered nine uninterrupted months of growth, as well as 16 of the last 17 months showing expansion. The nominal dollar level of spending has now reached its highest point since late 2008 and the average from the last three months is 32% above the cyclical low.

Spending on new single-family homes decelerated to its slowest pace of month-to-month growth since the first quarter of 2012, rising 0.8% versus November. On a year-over-year basis, the nominal value of spending on new homes has risen over 28%. In addition, since bottoming out around the midway point of 2009, construction spending has surged 59%. The current NAHB forecast calls for single-family housing starts to expand for the entirety of the outlook period, but a slower pace of growth is anticipated during the first quarter of this year. They are expected to re-accelerate over the remainder of 2013, and thus we anticipate a similar pattern will likely occur for construction spending.

construction spending

Construction spending on new multifamily projects jumped 6.2% during December 2012. Moreover, the initial estimate for November was revised higher from 0.5% to 1.8%, indicating spending activity finished the year strong. Of the three main categories of residential construction, multifamily has experienced the strongest rebound from its cyclical trough. Gains in spending have occurred in each of the last 15 months, with the latest month available representing the second largest percentage increase over this time period. On a year-over-year basis, the level of spending has skyrocketed more than 57% and has gained 97% from the bottom in August 2010.

Remodeling activity improved in December as spending climbed 2.9% from the prior month. Preliminary estimates for October and November were also revised higher, significantly higher in the case of October with a 1.9% decline turning into a 2.3% gain. The 3-month moving average points to a solid upward trend in home improvement spending and closed out 2012 at its highest nominal dollar value since September 2007. NAHB’s Remodeling Market Index (RMI) has offered a similar judgment on recent home improvement activity as the current and future market indicators have achieved their best readings since the first quarter of 2004.

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Latest Study Shows Average Buyer Expected to Stay in a Home 13 Years

Latest Study Shows Average Buyer Expected to Stay in a Home 13 Years

from Eye on Housing by Paul Emrath

recent article  published by NAHB shows that, based on a long-run calculation that averages mobility tendencies over a number of years, the typical buyer of a single-family home can be expected to stay in the home approximately 13 years before moving out.

This work updates a previous article that used data from the American Housing Survey (funded by the Department of Housing and Urban Development and conducted in odd-numbered years by the Census Bureau) through 2007.   The new study incorporates AHS data through 2011.

The mobility tendencies observed in the 2011 data imply that the expected length of stay in an owner-occupied, single-family home would be about 16 years (the time it would take half of single-family buyers to move out).  However, 2011 is likely to be an atypical year, so the article repeats the analysis using mobility tendencies observable in earlier years, with results as shown in the figure below.

Length chart for blog

If a single estimate is needed for how long buyers who move in today or in the near future can be expected to remain in their homes, the article recommends 13 years, based on the rounded average across all data points shown in the figure.

The article also shows that, over the 1987-2011 period, the expected length of stay in a single-family home has been consistently longer for trade-up buyers than for first-time buyers.   Averaged over those years, the expected length of stay in a single-family home is about 11 and a half years for first-time buyers, compared to 15 years for buyers who have owned a home before.

For more details, see the full article “Latest Calculations Show Average Buyer Expected to Stay in a Home 13 Years” published as the January 2013 Special Study in NAHB’s HousingEconomics.com.

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Calculated Risk: 2013 Housing Forecasts

2013 Housing Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 12/19/2012 

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.

Here was a summary of forecasts for 2012. Right now it looks like new home sales will be around 370 thousand this year, and total starts around 770 thousand or so.  Tom Lawler, John Burns and David Crowe (NAHB) were all very close on New Home sales for 2012.  Lawler was the closest on housing starts.

The table below shows several forecasts for 2013. (several analysts were kind enough to share their forecasts – thanks!)

From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: November 2012

From NAHB: Housing and Interest Rate Forecast, 11/29/2012 (excel)

I haven’t worked up a forecast yet for 2013. I’ve heard there are some lot issues for some of the builders (not improved until 2014), and that might limit supply. In general I expect prices to increase around the rate of inflation, and to see another solid increase in 2013 for new home sales and housing starts.

Housing Forecasts for 2013
New Home Sales (000s) Single Family Starts (000s) Total Starts (000s) House Prices1
NAHB 447 641 910 1.6%
Fannie Mae 452 659 936 1.6%2
Merrill Lynch 466 976 2.6%
Barclays 424 988 4.8%3
Wells Fargo 460 680 990 2.6%
Moody’s Analytics 500 820 1190 1.4%
1Case-Shiller unless indicated otherwise
2FHFA Purchase-Only Index
3Corelogic
2011 Actual 306 431 609 -4.0%
2012 Estimate 370 535 770 6.0%

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/12/2013-housing-forecasts.html#gaM83IxSECAZZJp5.99

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Builder Confidence increases in December, Highest since April 2006

Builder Confidence increases in December, Highest since April 2006

by Bill McBride on 12/18/2012 

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) increased 2 points in December to 47. Any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Continues Improving in December 

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose for an eighth consecutive month in December to a level of 47 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. This marked a two-point gain from a slightly revised November reading, and the highest level the index has attained since April of 2006.

“While there is still much room for improvement, the consistent upward trend in builder confidence over the past year is indicative of the gradual recovery that has been taking place in housing markets nationwide and that we expect to continue in 2013,” noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.

Two of the HMI’s three component indexes are now above the critical midpoint of 50. The component gauging current sales expectations rose two points to 51 in December, while the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months slipped one point, to 51. The component measuring traffic of prospective buyers increased one point, to 36.

HMI and Starts CorrelationClick on graph for larger image.

This graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the December release for the HMI and the October data for starts (November housing starts will be released tomorrow). This was at the consensus estimate of a reading of 47.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/12/builder-confidence-increases-in.html#KwBHwV3CQxwZTWhQ.99

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Residential Construction Spending Climbs to 4-year High

Residential Construction Spending Climbs to 4-year High

by Brian Lego —Eye on Housing

Private residential construction spending surged 3% on a month-to-month basis in October 2012. The initial estimate for September was revised downward from a 2.8% gain down to a 1.1% rate of growth; however, this was more than offset by an upward bump in the previously reported estimate for August from 1.2% to 2.8%. Following increases in 14 of the last 15 months, nominal spending on private residential construction activity is at its highest dollar value since late 2008. In addition, spending has risen 32% above the trough registered during the third quarter of 2010.

New single-family homes continued to post solid rates of growth, increasing 3.6% on a month-to-month basis for the second month in a row. Spending is also 29% above its year-ago level and has climbed 55% since bottoming out in mid-2009. This latest print on construction spending merely confirms the firming recovery for new single-family home construction that has been observed via housing starts and theHMI. With permit authorizations climbing rapidly and hitting their highest levels since the summer months of 2008, we anticipate this robust pace of growth in construction activity to continue over the near term.

construction spending

The positive momentum continued for the multifamily sector, notching its 13th consecutive monthly increase with a 6.2% gain over September 2012. Overall, the dollar value of multifamily construction activity has surged more than 82% from its cyclical low observed just two years ago, due in part to strong growth in renter demand. Multifamily starts have averaged better than 230,000 units over the duration of 2012 and given that permits have averaged approximately 280,000 units during the same time period, multifamily construction spending will likely rise further in the coming months.

Home improvement activity expanded 1.8% during October 2012, offsetting the downward revision of a 1.2% decline posted for September. Using the 3-month moving average to iron out some of the volatility in this metric, nominal remodeling spending has reached its highest point in five years. NAHB’s own Remodeling Market Index (RMI) has pointed to an even stronger assessment of current market conditions by professional remodelers as the RMI reached 50 for the first time since 2005.

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Read of the Day: Buying Products for Home Building and Remodeling: Who and Where

Buying Products for Home Building and Remodeling: Who and Where

by Paul Emrath — Eye on Housing 

In a recent article, NAHB asked who is most often responsible for choosing everything from wood products to electrical and plumbing fixtures, finishing materials, siding, windows and doors, and other items that go into a new home or home renovation. Then, the surveys went one step further and asked, regardless of who chooses these products, where are they generally purchased?

Perhaps not surprisingly, the results show that builders and remodelers themselves have the greatest influence on product selection. The main exceptions to this rule are products like appliances, flooring, lighting, countertops and cabinets, which are often chosen directly by the consumer, particularly in remodeling projects. Meanwhile, products chosen most often by subcontractors are limited to electrical and HVAC equipment and ducts.

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