Tag Archives: National Association of Home Builder

Latest Study Shows Average Buyer Expected to Stay in a Home 13 Years

Latest Study Shows Average Buyer Expected to Stay in a Home 13 Years

from Eye on Housing by Paul Emrath

recent article  published by NAHB shows that, based on a long-run calculation that averages mobility tendencies over a number of years, the typical buyer of a single-family home can be expected to stay in the home approximately 13 years before moving out.

This work updates a previous article that used data from the American Housing Survey (funded by the Department of Housing and Urban Development and conducted in odd-numbered years by the Census Bureau) through 2007.   The new study incorporates AHS data through 2011.

The mobility tendencies observed in the 2011 data imply that the expected length of stay in an owner-occupied, single-family home would be about 16 years (the time it would take half of single-family buyers to move out).  However, 2011 is likely to be an atypical year, so the article repeats the analysis using mobility tendencies observable in earlier years, with results as shown in the figure below.

Length chart for blog

If a single estimate is needed for how long buyers who move in today or in the near future can be expected to remain in their homes, the article recommends 13 years, based on the rounded average across all data points shown in the figure.

The article also shows that, over the 1987-2011 period, the expected length of stay in a single-family home has been consistently longer for trade-up buyers than for first-time buyers.   Averaged over those years, the expected length of stay in a single-family home is about 11 and a half years for first-time buyers, compared to 15 years for buyers who have owned a home before.

For more details, see the full article “Latest Calculations Show Average Buyer Expected to Stay in a Home 13 Years” published as the January 2013 Special Study in NAHB’s HousingEconomics.com.

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Calculated Risk: 2013 Housing Forecasts

2013 Housing Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 12/19/2012 

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.

Here was a summary of forecasts for 2012. Right now it looks like new home sales will be around 370 thousand this year, and total starts around 770 thousand or so.  Tom Lawler, John Burns and David Crowe (NAHB) were all very close on New Home sales for 2012.  Lawler was the closest on housing starts.

The table below shows several forecasts for 2013. (several analysts were kind enough to share their forecasts – thanks!)

From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: November 2012

From NAHB: Housing and Interest Rate Forecast, 11/29/2012 (excel)

I haven’t worked up a forecast yet for 2013. I’ve heard there are some lot issues for some of the builders (not improved until 2014), and that might limit supply. In general I expect prices to increase around the rate of inflation, and to see another solid increase in 2013 for new home sales and housing starts.

Housing Forecasts for 2013
New Home Sales (000s) Single Family Starts (000s) Total Starts (000s) House Prices1
NAHB 447 641 910 1.6%
Fannie Mae 452 659 936 1.6%2
Merrill Lynch 466 976 2.6%
Barclays 424 988 4.8%3
Wells Fargo 460 680 990 2.6%
Moody’s Analytics 500 820 1190 1.4%
1Case-Shiller unless indicated otherwise
2FHFA Purchase-Only Index
3Corelogic
2011 Actual 306 431 609 -4.0%
2012 Estimate 370 535 770 6.0%

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/12/2013-housing-forecasts.html#gaM83IxSECAZZJp5.99

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