Tag Archives: new home inventory

CR: New Home Sales at 454,000 SAAR in April

New Home Sales at 454,000 SAAR in April

by Bill McBride on 5/23/2013  

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 454 thousand. This was up from 444 thousand SAAR in March (March sales were revised up from 417 thousand).

January sales were revised up from 445 thousand to 458 thousand, and February sales were revised up from 411 thousand to 429 thousand. Very strong upward revisions.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

“Sales of new single-family houses in April 2013 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 454,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 2.3 percent above the revised March rate of 444,000 and is 29.0 percent above the April 2012 estimate of 352,000.”

New Home SalesClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply was unchanged in April at 4.1 months.

The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

New Home Sales, Months of Supply This is now in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).

“The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 156,000. This represents a supply of 4.1 months at the current sales rate.”

On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:

“A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted.”

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

New Home Sales, InventoryThis graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale is at a record low. The combined total of completed and under construction is also just above the record low.

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In April 2013 (red column), 45 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year 34 thousand homes were sold in April. The high for April was 116 thousand in 2005, and the low for April was 30 thousand in 2011.

New Home Sales, NSA

This was well above expectations of 425,000 sales in April, and a solid report, especially with all the upward revision to previous months.  I’ll have more soon …

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/05/new-home-sales-at-454000-saar-in-april.html#FsoeEkjKiPHxQ7ds.99

Advertisements

Leave a comment

Filed under Home Sales

CR: New Home Sales at 417,000 SAAR in March

New Home Sales at 417,000 SAAR in March

by Bill McBride on 4/23/2013  

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 417 thousand. This was up from 411 thousand SAAR in February.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

“Sales of new single-family houses in March 2013 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 417,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.5 percent above the revised February rate of 411,000 and is 18.5 percent above the March 2012 estimate of 352,000.”

New Home SalesClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply was unchanged in March at 4.4 months.

The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

New Home Sales, Months of Supply This is now in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).

“The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March was 153,000. This represents a supply of 4.4 months at the current sales rate.”

On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:

“A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted.”

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

New Home Sales, InventoryThis graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale is just above the record low. The combined total of completed and under construction is also just above the record low.

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In March 2013 (red column), 40 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year 34 thousand homes were sold in March. This was the seventh weakest March since this data has been tracked. The high for March was 127 thousand in 2005, and the low for March was 28 thousand in 2011.

New Home Sales, NSA

This was at expectations of 419,000 sales in March, and a fairly solid report.  I’ll have more soon …

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/04/new-home-sales-at-417000-saar-in-march.html#X2gii8fpqgYSU7mZ.99

Leave a comment

Filed under Home Sales

CR: New Home Sales at 411,000 SAAR in February

New Home Sales at 411,000 SAAR in February

by Bill McBride on 3/26/2013  

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 411 thousand. This was down from a revised 431 thousand SAAR in January (revised down from 437 thousand).

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

“Sales of new single-family houses in February 2013 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 411,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.6 percent below the revised January rate of 431,000, but is 12.3 percent above the February 2012 estimate of 366,000.

New Home SalesClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply increased in February to 4.4 months from 4.2 months in January.

The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

New Home Sales, Months of SupplyThis is now in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).

“The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 152,000. This represents a supply of 4.4 months at the current sales rate.”

On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:

“A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted.”

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

New Home Sales, InventoryThis graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale is just above the record low. The combined total of completed and under construction is also just above the record low.

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In February 2013 (red column), 33 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year 30 thousand homes were sold in February. This was the eight weakest February since this data has been tracked. The high for February was 109 thousand in 2005, and the low for February was 22 thousand in 2011.

New Home Sales, NSA

This was below expectations of 425,000 sales in February, but still a fairly solid report.  I’ll have more soon …

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/03/new-home-sales-at-411000-saar-in.html#aFrtr6uwQMoHjIft.99

Leave a comment

Filed under Home Sales

CR: New Home Sales at 437,000 SAAR in January

New Home Sales at 437,000 SAAR in January

by Bill McBride on 2/26/2013 

NOTE: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testimony Testimony by Chairman Bernanke on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress

Here is the C-Span Link

On New Home Sales:

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 437 thousand. This was up from a revised 378 thousand SAAR in December (revised up from 369 thousand).

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

“Sales of new single-family houses in January 2013 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 437,000 … This is 15.6 percent above the revised December rate of 378,000 and is 28.9 percent above the January 2012 estimate of 339,000.”

New Home SalesClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply decreased in January to 4.1 months from 4.8 months in December.

The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

New Home Sales, Months of SupplyThis is now in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).

“The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 150,000. This represents a supply of 4.1 months at the current sales rate.”

On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:

“A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted.”

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

New Home Sales, InventoryThis graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale was just above the record low. The combined total of completed and under construction is also just above the record low.

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In January 2013 (red column), 31 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year only 23 thousand homes were sold in January. This was the ninth weakest January since this data has been tracked. The high for January was 92 thousand in 2005.

New Home Sales, NSA

This was above expectations of 381,000 sales in January. This is the strongest sales rate since 2008. This was another solid report. I’ll have more soon …

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/02/new-home-sales-at-437000-saar-in-january.html#JEGGhAuRiVj0wprP.99

Leave a comment

Filed under Home Sales

PragCap: Is the USA Facing a Housing Shortage?

Is the USA Facing a Housing Shortage?

02/25/2013

By Walter Kurtz, Sober Look

Homes available for sale as well as the housing supplies measured in months are now at pre-recession levels, while household formation continues to recover (see post). This development was predicted by William Wheaton back in 2009 (see figure 1).

Forbes: – Most striking however is the fact that inventory has contracted to its lowest level since December 1999, more than 13 years ago. The number of available homes, which is not seasonally adjusted, fell 4.9% from December and is 25.3% lower than a year ago. With 1.74 million homes on the market, at the current sales pace, supply will be exhausted in just over four months. It represents the lowest housing supply since April 2005. In a normal market, a healthy supply level is about six months.

A number of economists continue to talk about the shadow inventory – the millions of homes that are “about to hit the market” as homeowners have or shortly will fail on their mortgages. Some evidence suggests that in the more depressed housing areas banks are indeed sitting on foreclosed properties, unwilling to sell. But a number of banks have also been aggressively modifying mortgages, reducing principal and interest, and therefore cutting delinquencies.

Clearly many more homes will be hitting the markets this year. But it really doesn’t make much difference if people who move out of these homes end up buying or renting – they need to live somewhere. And according to the Census Bureau, rental vacancies are near a 10-year low.

Ironically, the relatively tight credit conditions are (at least partially) restricting new home construction. Completion of new housing units has improved recently but remains at historically depressed levels – certainly not enough to keep up with the population growth and family formation (see figure 2). The danger of course is that with spring approaching (generally a period of increased demand for homes), some markets could overheat due to tight supplies, worsening home affordability and dampening sales numbers.

sl11 Is the USA Facing a Housing Shortage?

(Figure 1 – Source: JPMorgan)

sl21 Is the USA Facing a Housing Shortage?

(Figure 2 – Source: NY Fed)

Leave a comment

Filed under Home Sales

New Home Sales at 389,000 SAAR in September

New Home Sales at 389,000 SAAR in September

by Bill McBride on 10/24/2012 

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 389 thousand. This was up from a revised 368 thousand SAAR in August (revised down from 373 thousand). This is the highest level since April 2010 (tax credit related bounce).

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Sales of new single-family houses in September 2012 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 389,000 … This is 5.7 percent above the revised August rate of 368,000 and is 27.1 percent above the September 2011 estimate of 306,000.

New Home SalesClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply declined in September to 4.5 months. August was revised up to 4.6 months.

The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

New Home Sales, Months of SupplyThis is now in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).

The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 145,000. This represents a supply of 4.5 months at the current sales rate.

On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:

“A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted.”

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

New Home Sales, InventoryThis graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale was at a record low 38,000 units in September. The combined total of completed and under construction is just above the record low since “under construction” is starting to increase.

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In September 2012 (red column), 31 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year only 24 thousand homes were sold in September. This was the sixth weakest September since this data has been tracked (above 2011, 2010, 2009, 1981 and 1966). The high for September was 99 thousand in 2005.

New Home Sales, NSAEven though sales are still very low, new home sales have clearly bottomed. New home sales have averaged 364 thousand SAAR over the first 9 months of 2012, after averaging under 300 thousand for the previous 18 months.  Sales are finally above the lows for previous recessions too.

This was slightly above expectations of 385,000, and was another fairly solid report. This indicates an ongoing recovery in residential investment.
New Home Sales graphs

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/10/new-home-sales-at-389000-saar-in.html

Leave a comment

Filed under Home Sales

New Home Sales at 373,000 SAAR in August

New Home Sales at 373,000 SAAR in August

by Bill McBride on 9/26/2012 

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 373 thousand. This was down slightly from a revised 374 thousand SAAR in July (revised up from 372 thousand). Sales in June were revised up.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Sales of new single-family houses in August 2012 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 373,000… This is 0.3 percent below the revised July rate of 374,000, but is 27.7 percent above the August 2011 estimate of 292,000.

New Home SalesClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply was unchanged in August at 4.5 months. July was revised down from 4.6 months.

The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

New Home Sales, Months of SupplyThis is now in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).

The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 141,000. This represents a supply of 4.5 months at the current sales rate.

On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:

“A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted.”

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

New Home Sales, InventoryThis graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale was at a record low 38,000 units in August. The combined total of completed and under construction is at the lowest level since this series started.

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In August 2012 (red column), 31 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year only 25 thousand homes were sold in August. This was the third weakest August since this data has been tracked. The high for August was 110 thousand in 2005.

New Home Sales, NSAEven though sales are still very low, new home sales have clearly bottomed. New home sales have averaged 362 thousand SAAR over the first 8 months of 2012, after averaging under 300 thousand for the previous 18 months. Most of the recent revisions have been up too.

This was below expectations of 380,000, but this was another fairly solid report and indicates an ongoing sluggish recovery in residential investment.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/09/new-home-sales-at-373000-saar-in-august.html

1 Comment

Filed under Home Sales