Tag Archives: saar

CR: Existing Home Sales in April: 4.97 million SAAR, 5.2 months of supply

Existing Home Sales in April: 4.97 million SAAR, 5.2 months of supply

by Bill McBride on 5/22/2013  

NOTE: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testimony Testimony by Chairman Bernanke on the economic outlook 

The NAR reports: April Existing-Home Sales Up but Constrained

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 0.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million in April from an upwardly revised 4.94 million in March. Resale activity is 9.7 percent above the 4.53 million-unit level in April 2012.

Total housing inventory at the end of April rose 11.9 percent, a seasonal increase to 2.16 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.2-month supply at the current sales pace, compared with 4.7 months in March. Listed inventory is 13.6 percent below a year ago, when there was a 6.6-month supply, with current availability tighter in the lower price ranges.

Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in April 2013 (4.97 million SAAR) were 0.6% higher than last month, and were 9.7% above the April 2012 rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home InventoryAccording to the NAR, inventory increased to 2.16 million in April up from 1.93 million in March.   Inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually increases from the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer (so some of this increase was seasonal).

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory decreased 13.6% year-over-year in April compared to April 2012. This is the 26th consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory, but the smallest YoY decrease since 2011 (I expect the YoY decrease to get smaller all year).

Months of supply increased to 5.2 months in April.

This was  just below expectations of sales of 5.0 million.  For existing home sales, the key number is inventory – and inventory is still down sharply year-over-year, although the declines are slowing.   This was a solid report.  I’ll have more later …

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/05/existing-home-sales-in-april-497.html#jOuSfqHdtIQ06j4D.99

Leave a comment

Filed under Home Sales

CR: New Home Sales at 437,000 SAAR in January

New Home Sales at 437,000 SAAR in January

by Bill McBride on 2/26/2013 

NOTE: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testimony Testimony by Chairman Bernanke on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress

Here is the C-Span Link

On New Home Sales:

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 437 thousand. This was up from a revised 378 thousand SAAR in December (revised up from 369 thousand).

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

“Sales of new single-family houses in January 2013 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 437,000 … This is 15.6 percent above the revised December rate of 378,000 and is 28.9 percent above the January 2012 estimate of 339,000.”

New Home SalesClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply decreased in January to 4.1 months from 4.8 months in December.

The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

New Home Sales, Months of SupplyThis is now in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).

“The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 150,000. This represents a supply of 4.1 months at the current sales rate.”

On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:

“A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted.”

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

New Home Sales, InventoryThis graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale was just above the record low. The combined total of completed and under construction is also just above the record low.

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In January 2013 (red column), 31 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year only 23 thousand homes were sold in January. This was the ninth weakest January since this data has been tracked. The high for January was 92 thousand in 2005.

New Home Sales, NSA

This was above expectations of 381,000 sales in January. This is the strongest sales rate since 2008. This was another solid report. I’ll have more soon …

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/02/new-home-sales-at-437000-saar-in-january.html#JEGGhAuRiVj0wprP.99

Leave a comment

Filed under Home Sales